What does the confidence interval mean?
Next to every presence percentage in Geony there is a band, for example '33% (6 to 79%)'. That band is not a hedge but the most honest part of the figure.
Measuring something that guesses
Ask the same question to an assistant three times and you get three answers. AI visibility is therefore a sampling problem: one measurement is a snapshot. The more often you measure, the more certain you are of the underlying percentage.
The Wilson interval
For every percentage Geony shows the 95% confidence interval (Wilson score), the same statistic that medical studies use for small samples. Three measurements with one hit is '33%', but the interval runs from 6 to 79%: the band tells you how narrow your basis is.
How you use it
Two figures only differ demonstrably when their intervals do not overlap. If they do overlap, treat the difference as noise, not as a trend. And if you want narrower bands, measure more often: more measurements, more certainty.
- •Wide band: few measurements, be careful with conclusions.
- •Narrow band: many measurements, the figure stands firm.
- •Overlapping bands: the difference is not (yet) proven.
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